Physics Based Seismic Hazard Analysis - Why and How

Ned Field
USGS Pasadena


This talk will address: 1) why seismic-hazard analysis (SHA) needs a more
physics-based approach to modeling (in the context of a general overview of
current practice); 2) why a lack of consensus on how to construct more
physics-based models means we'll have multiple options; 3) why all viable
models need to be considered for "proper" SHA (in this sense we have yet
solve the problem properly); and why, given the above, SHA needs a
computational infrastructure, or "Community Modeling Environment", capable
of handling a potentially great number of arbitrarily complex models.